Growing field for McConnell’s Senate Seat

Names have begun surfacing for the twin races to fill the State Senate seat being vacated by Lieutenant Governor Glenn McConnell, the first being a summer special election to fill the vacant seat and then a second in November to fill the seat for the full term.

The first to file was Paul Tinkler, a former Democratic member of Charleston City Council who left council after losing a re-election bid several years ago. But Tinkler may not be the only Democrat in the running, as State Rep. Leon Stavrinakis is reported to be looking at entering the race - which would be his second Senate bid (his first one was a lopsided defeat by the GOP candidate - former Senator John Kuhn - in 2001).

On the GOP side, a number of candidates are looking at entering the race, most notably James Island State Rep. Peter McCoy and former Charleston County Council member Paul Thurmond, who left his seat in 2010 to seek the First District Congressional seat.

As the special election for the remainder of McConnell’s term will take place after filing for the regular election for the seat, the winner of the summer special election could face a re-match with the same candidates later in the year – unless those who lose the special election contest withdraw their regular election candidacies or choose not to file for the full term November election. This would force the two incumbent House members who are looking at running for the seat (McCoy and Stavrinakis) to decide if they're willing to gamble their House seats on Senate bids - an unusual twist as most special elections take place in the middle of terms.

McConnell, who had been in the Senate since 1981, surviving the switch from the system of at-large Senate seats elected from multi-county groupings to single member districts which took place in 1984, making him the only Senator in the history of District 41. In recent years, McConnell had only faced two major party challenges: a 1992 primary which he carried 80% of the vote and a 2004 challenge from a Democrat which he won by roughly 2-to-1, and has considerable support in the district which could allow him to play a key role in deciding who would succeed him.

Santorum campaign working to co-opt delegate elections?

While South Carolina’s delegates to the national GOP convention are locked in to support the candidates who won their respective district - or statewide – contests, this isn’t stopping the Santorum campaign from organizing efforts to elect delegates at the upcoming district conventions. According to a number of sources, the Santorum campaign is anticipating a “brokered” convention (which hasn’t happened in nearly 100 years) and is preparing to compete once nomination voting has gone several rounds and delegates are no longer obligated to support their voters’ choice and are then free to support the candidate of their own choosing.

But Santorum, long connected to K Street lobbyists and the game of Washington influence peddling, is no stranger to the kind of insider power plays that helped fuel the 2006 Democratic takeover of Congress, as well as the TEA Party backlash which followed in the 2010 elections.

While they’re reportedly working statewide, their most intense efforts seem aimed at the Sixth District convention, where turnout is usually low and an orchestrated effort could give them control over the district’s three delegates. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich carried the Sixth, one of five of the state’s seven Congressional districts that he won. Mitt Romney won the First and Second Districts. Santorum led in none of the state’s districts, finishing third place overall.

Clarendon Cover-up State Rep launches Senate bid

Last year, Democrats almost handed a normally-safe State House seat in Clarendon County to the GOP when they nominated Kevin Johnson, the former Mayor of Manning. Questions about Johnson's mayoral travel were raised and stalled until after the special election for the House seat was over.

After long-time Senator John Land decided to not seek re-election to his Pee Dee region State Senate seat, Johnson was quick to announce his candidacy for Land's seat - a campaign he was planning even before Land decided not to run - less than a year after he was elected to the House.

While FOIA responses were initially stalled until after the House special election could take place, we're hoping to see a full accounting of where the money in Manning went - as well as where Johnson went - before Johnson's campaign for the Senate moves forward.

Given the many funny games we've uncovered by Clarendon County Democrats, we're not going to hold our breath waiting for the truth to emerge.

House Majority Leader race off and running?

As current Majority Leader Kenny Bingham will be moving on at the end of this year, the race is already on to replace him. Currently, two names have been circulated for this role, but more are expected to look at running:

Bruce Bannister - Greenville. A attorney by profession, Bannister won the race to fill the House seat held by former House Speaker David Wilkins when Wilkins was appointed ambassador to Canada during the Bush administration. He has been in the House since 2005 and currently serves as Assistant Majority Leader and Chairs the General Law subcommittee on Judiciary Committee.

Gary Simrill - Rock Hill. A Rock Hill businessman, Simrill is nearing twenty years' tenure in his York County House seat, elected to fill the seat once held by his father, Hugh Simrill. The first Republican legislator elected from Rock Hill and the second-ever in York County, his history in the GOP goes back to his high school years in the 1980s.

More Spartanburg legislative primaries

In addition to what is expected to be a heated Senate primary between Spartanburg County State Senator Lee Bright and former Senator John Hawkins, we've learned that there are two State House primary races brewing in Spartanburg County:

• Incumbent Rep. Rita Allison will face a re-match with Jim McMillan, who challenged her as a petition candidate in 2010, only to get hammered 62-38.
• Gayle Holt, the last President of the Palmetto House Republican Women chapter, will take on incumbent Rep. Mike Forrester.

Guest Cartoon: Walton - "Gas Prices"

Senate seniority no longer an electoral shield?

In years past, building seniority in the State Senate seemed one of the best ways to ensure a long tenure in the Senate. Senate long-termers like John Drummond, John Land, Hugh Leatherman, Glenn McConnell, Harvey Peeler and Verne Smith rarely face challenges (and usually crushed those challengers by lopsided margins) and the occasional ouster of a long-time Senator, such as Greg Gregory’s upset over a 28-year Senator in 1992, were the result of shifting voter demographics, not voter discontent.

In recent years, those Senators who lost seats were relatively low in seniority. In the last two election cycles, three Senators - John Kuhn from Charleston in 2004 and Ceips from Beaufort and Randy Scott from Dorchester in 2008 - were making their first re-election bids and had not accumulated much seniority.

This year could be different as two senior Republicans face what are expected to be strong primary challengers:

Two more Upstate Senate primary battles

Recently, the Blogland reported that Greenville County Senator David Thomas faced a potential tough primary battle for reelection. Now two more Senators in the Upstate will face what are expected to be strong primary challenges from former state Representatives who are seeking to make political comebacks.

• Pickens County Senator Larry Martin will face Rex Rice, who gave up his Greenville-Pickens House Seat (which was moved to York County in the recent redistricting) two years ago to run for the Third Congressional District seat. Martin, who has held the seat since 1992 after serving in the House for several terms, has gone without serious opposition during his twenty-year Senate tenure, while Rice spent sixteen years in the House representing part of Martin’s Senate district.
  
  

• Spartanburg County Senator Lee Bright will reportedly face a rematch with John Hawkins, who narrowly defeated Bright in a contest for the seat in 2004. Bright, who won the seat four years later when Hawkins decided not to seek another term, has clashed with fellow Republicans on the county’s legislative delegation and was associated with a failed 2010 petition candidate against Rep. Rita Allison.

While Hawkins may, having defeated Bright in the past, be able to wage a strong candidacy for the Spartanburg County Senate seat, we think Rice will face an uphill battle as House members – current and former – seeking to move up to the Senate, rarely prevail, especially when challenging incumbent Senators. Many current Senators who toppled incumbents to win their seats, including Tom Davis, Greg Gregory, Larry Grooms, Mike Rose and Danny Verdin, were non-legislators when they first won their Senate seats.

Will these challenges prove the rule or the exception? Stay tuned.