State House Watch, Part 4: Coastal races
I don't know why the last installment of my race watches never got posted on The Shot, so I'll just put it up here instead ...
The Coastal Lowcounty, with the exception of inner-city and rural black districts, a strange sort of GOP stronghold. While it typically goes for a Republican statewide, and is rock-solid for GOP Congressmen Henry Brown and Joe Wilson, many of these voters are much more moderate on social issues and sometimes revolt on GOP candidates, as shown in the ability of former U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings to pull majorities from this region, as well as when they went for former Democratic Governor Jim Hodges in 1998.
House 119: Charleston County (Current party: R)
The Democrats thought they had a really good shot at this seat, following a number of highly-publicized statements by Rep. John Graham Altman. They recruited Leon Stavrinakis, the Democratic chair of Charleston County Council.
While they expected a boost the fact that Altman was a controversial incumbent who had attracted a lot of negative publicity, he opted not to run for re-election. Instead, the GOP nominated Suzanne Piper, in a come-from-behind GOP runoff win, scrambling their initial hopes to have a weak incumbent to work against.
Stavrinakis is pointed to as the kind of Democrat who can win crossover votes, as one of only two Democrats to win seats on County Council between 1994 and 2004, when the county went from the at-large method of election to single-member districts. However his crossover appeal may be overrated, as he ran for the State Senate to replace Ernie Passailague in 2001, in a Democratic-leaning seat, and got beat handily by John Kuhn. Having been placed into an overwhelmingly-Republican single member district, where Paul Thurmond is the GOP candidate, he chose to run for the State House.
This seat was one of the first legislative seats in the Lowcountry to fall into GOP hands, and has been that way for nearly three decades. It’ll be tough to see this seat changing hands, but the Democrats think they’ve got a shot, and talk from on the ground says the race is close. Control of this seat decides the balance of power on the county’s Legislative Delegation, therefore there is a lot at stake and both sides are giving it all they’ve got.
Also to watch … House 108: Charleston and Georgetown Counties (Current party: D)
Since she took this seat ten years ago, Democratic State Rep. Vida Miller stays on the top of the GOP hitlist. While her margins have been less than impressive, she has managed to hold on against a string of good and bad challengers.
The GOP is trying again with Ricky Horne, who ran for the State Senate in 2004, but dropped out before the primary.
This district, which includes the lower Grand Strand in Georgetown County and the outskirts of Mount Pleasant, is definitely competitive, but Miller has worked hard and prevailed, no matter what had been thrown at her.
Horne will need more than general voting trends to put this seat back in the GOP column.
Also to watch … House 115: Charleston County (Current party: R)
Rep. Wallace Scarborough has usually fared well in this solidly-Republican seat on James Island and Folly Beach With the exception of Robert Barber’s six-year tenure, this seat has been in GOP hands for a generation. His challenger, Gene Platt, ran for the seat in 1994, and was beaten 2-to-1 by former Rep. Lynn Seithel, who was later ousted by Scarborough.
Platt serves on the local Public Service District board, which serves about half the House 115 residents, and has won every race for an at-large seat since 1992. However, his every effort to “break out” by running for Congress and seats on the old at-large County Council have been losing efforts.
Normally, this race should be a sleeper, but an embarrassing chain of events have hurt Scarborough’s image: a highly-publicized divorce battle, and a late-night incident with SCE&G workers in his parents’ backyard, in which his gun was fired (but not at the workers) and he was arrested (the charges were later dropped).
In a quiet bedroom community like this, this sort of publicity could make the race interesting and steer some extra votes into Platt’s column … but it will take more than a few hundred crossover votes for Platt to pull off an upset.
To add to the mix, groups backing Scarborough have jumped into the fray to attack Platt, brining up his poetry, which is even steamier than the allegations in Scarborough’s now publicized divorce files. Thus far, these efforts seem to have accomplished little, and may even have backfired. But if they’re going after Platt, is the race is closer than the GOP would like for it to be?
The Coastal Lowcounty, with the exception of inner-city and rural black districts, a strange sort of GOP stronghold. While it typically goes for a Republican statewide, and is rock-solid for GOP Congressmen Henry Brown and Joe Wilson, many of these voters are much more moderate on social issues and sometimes revolt on GOP candidates, as shown in the ability of former U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings to pull majorities from this region, as well as when they went for former Democratic Governor Jim Hodges in 1998.
House 119: Charleston County (Current party: R)
The Democrats thought they had a really good shot at this seat, following a number of highly-publicized statements by Rep. John Graham Altman. They recruited Leon Stavrinakis, the Democratic chair of Charleston County Council.
While they expected a boost the fact that Altman was a controversial incumbent who had attracted a lot of negative publicity, he opted not to run for re-election. Instead, the GOP nominated Suzanne Piper, in a come-from-behind GOP runoff win, scrambling their initial hopes to have a weak incumbent to work against.
Stavrinakis is pointed to as the kind of Democrat who can win crossover votes, as one of only two Democrats to win seats on County Council between 1994 and 2004, when the county went from the at-large method of election to single-member districts. However his crossover appeal may be overrated, as he ran for the State Senate to replace Ernie Passailague in 2001, in a Democratic-leaning seat, and got beat handily by John Kuhn. Having been placed into an overwhelmingly-Republican single member district, where Paul Thurmond is the GOP candidate, he chose to run for the State House.
This seat was one of the first legislative seats in the Lowcountry to fall into GOP hands, and has been that way for nearly three decades. It’ll be tough to see this seat changing hands, but the Democrats think they’ve got a shot, and talk from on the ground says the race is close. Control of this seat decides the balance of power on the county’s Legislative Delegation, therefore there is a lot at stake and both sides are giving it all they’ve got.
Also to watch … House 108: Charleston and Georgetown Counties (Current party: D)
Since she took this seat ten years ago, Democratic State Rep. Vida Miller stays on the top of the GOP hitlist. While her margins have been less than impressive, she has managed to hold on against a string of good and bad challengers.
The GOP is trying again with Ricky Horne, who ran for the State Senate in 2004, but dropped out before the primary.
This district, which includes the lower Grand Strand in Georgetown County and the outskirts of Mount Pleasant, is definitely competitive, but Miller has worked hard and prevailed, no matter what had been thrown at her.
Horne will need more than general voting trends to put this seat back in the GOP column.
Also to watch … House 115: Charleston County (Current party: R)
Rep. Wallace Scarborough has usually fared well in this solidly-Republican seat on James Island and Folly Beach With the exception of Robert Barber’s six-year tenure, this seat has been in GOP hands for a generation. His challenger, Gene Platt, ran for the seat in 1994, and was beaten 2-to-1 by former Rep. Lynn Seithel, who was later ousted by Scarborough.
Platt serves on the local Public Service District board, which serves about half the House 115 residents, and has won every race for an at-large seat since 1992. However, his every effort to “break out” by running for Congress and seats on the old at-large County Council have been losing efforts.
Normally, this race should be a sleeper, but an embarrassing chain of events have hurt Scarborough’s image: a highly-publicized divorce battle, and a late-night incident with SCE&G workers in his parents’ backyard, in which his gun was fired (but not at the workers) and he was arrested (the charges were later dropped).
In a quiet bedroom community like this, this sort of publicity could make the race interesting and steer some extra votes into Platt’s column … but it will take more than a few hundred crossover votes for Platt to pull off an upset.
To add to the mix, groups backing Scarborough have jumped into the fray to attack Platt, brining up his poetry, which is even steamier than the allegations in Scarborough’s now publicized divorce files. Thus far, these efforts seem to have accomplished little, and may even have backfired. But if they’re going after Platt, is the race is closer than the GOP would like for it to be?
Some of the swing in the 119 race that propelled Leon came off the catfight between Anne Alford and Toi Estes that included a video stake out of Alfords signs illegally posted in the right of way. Sandy Estes, unerringly pulled those signs, which I'm given to understand also violated the convenants of the Crescent, where the shot heard and echoing still in Columbia tabloids was fired. In the runoff, Alford moved on to a general election wherein her fifteen minutes of fame was eclipsed, as Leon wasn't up for a catfight... moral #1: don't bring a cat to the dogfighting ring, pit bulls like chew toys.
119 probably hinges on the Kiawah Seabrook precincts, pretty solid red and in favor of keeping their property taxes down.
House 108, the days as a solid D are waxing as Mt Pleasant's tentacles extend to the Grand Strand and homes starting in the low 200's are the sprawling norm, moving the farms out. Vida might have tow more terms unless he starts trading precincts around to protect himself, I look forward to that blue precinct knife fight.
Also, Stavrinakis won in county-wide elections not single member races. He was the only dem to survive the GOP landslide in 2002. His senate race was in 2001 when he was far less well known and was a special election, hardly a democratic strength. Platt and Riley are anything but allies.
#1) i don't see where i said that leon had ever run under the single-member district system. in district 9, he'd have been roadkill against thurmond.
#2) the senate seat he ran for in 2001 had been won just months before by democrat ernie passailague, who got 62% of the vote. that's not exactly a GOP stronghold.
#3) platt and riley? where did i say ANYTHING about riley in that posting? i'm sure with platt being a big town of james island backer, those two democrats have some major disagreements. put down the crack pipe there.
#4) as to the delegation balance ... this has come from several people far more reputable than some anonymous poster, whose rebuttal was packaged along with a number of other misstatements. who do you think i'm more likely to believe - people i know, or some rambling nobody?
It was west rhino who said Platt was Riley's puppet and I was responding to that post more than anything else. Don't be so defensive.