My 2006 races to watch - how did they do?

For us political hacks, Election 2006 has been a hell of a ride in South Carolina.

The first round was primaries headlined with a last-minute surge by Governor Sanford’s GOP primary rival and a stunning run-off save by Lt. Governor Andre Bauer, who overcame a 2nd place primary finish to prevail over Mike Campbell in the runoff.

But the surprises reached down the primary ballots – five House members lost their primaries, including the senior Democrat in the House – Tom Rhoad – and the only Democrat to chair a House committee. They were joined by all but one County Council chairman who faced a primary challenger. In the larger counties, roughly half of all County Council members were ousted. It was not a good year to be an incumbent.

The GOP rode into the fall hoping to gain a seat or two. While it didn’t work out that way, their losses were as marginal as their original expected gains – a net gain by Democrats of one seat.

To look back for a moment, here’s how my "races to watch" turned out:

Races I called "very competitive":

  • District 29: DEM open seat in Chester, Cherokee, and York Counties-
    Dennis Moss - D 4,591 50%, Danny Stacy - R 4,525 50%
    Less than 100 votes!

  • District 30: DEM incumbent in Cherokee County-
    Olin Phillips - D 57%, Bobby Beattie - R 43%

  • District 45: DEM open seat in Lancaster and York Counties - GOP pickup
    Mick Mulvaney - R 51%, Alston DeVenny - D 49%
    Less than 200 votes!

  • District 60: GOP open seat in Florence and Sumter Counties-
    Phillip Lowe - R 60%, LaRue Kirby - D 40%

  • District 79: GOP incumbent in Kershaw and Richland Counties-
    Bill Cotty - R 45%, Anton Gunn - D 43%
    ... and Michael Letts - I 9%, John Nelums - UCP 3%
    Cotty holds by under 300 votes!

  • District 97: GOP incumbent in Dorchester County- DEM pickup
    Patsy Knight - D 51%, George Bailey - R 49%
    Less than 200 votes!

  • District 119: GOP open seat in Charleston County- DEM pickup
    Leon Stavrinakis - D 54%, Suzanne Piper - R 46%

Races I called "potentially active":

  • District 7: GOP open seat in Anderson County-
    Michael Gambrell - R 56%, Ron Gilreath - D 44%

  • District 75: GOP incumbent in Richland County-
    Jim Harrison - R 55%, Boyd Summers - D 45%

  • District 108: DEM incumbent in Charleston and Georgetown Counties-
    Vida Miller - D 56%, Ricky Horne - R 44%

  • District 115: GOP incumbent in Charleston County-
    Wallace Scarborough - R 5,938 50%, Eugene Platt - D 5,893 50%
    Less than 100 votes!

  • District 120: DEM incumbent in Colleton and Hampton Counties-
    Bill Bowers - D 55%, Joe Flowers - R 45%

I only missed one race where the winner came in under 60%: Dem rep Anne Parks, in Greenwood and McCormick Counties, who held District 12 by 1100 votes - 58% to 42%. I also predicted that the House 60 race would be very close, as it had been in the past, but GOP candidate Phillip Lowe scored a stunning 60% victory. Nobody I talked with expected him to run away with it.

But I can't take all the credit for calling what turned out to be pretty good shots ... much of the credit is due to those who contacted me, and provided me valuable insights into races which helped me fine tune my analysis. Thank you!!! Thank you!!! Thank you!!!

... your thoughts ... ?

3 Response to "My 2006 races to watch - how did they do?"

  1. Anonymous 15/11/06 11:18
    once again, more undeniable proof you don't know what the hell you're talking about, nor the rest of your kool-aid drinking right-wing flako butt buddies
  2. Moye 15/11/06 20:30
    Good calls.
  3. Anonymous 17/11/06 09:17
    who'd ya pay off to get all their polling data?

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