Beaufort Senate election preview
With less than two weeks before the GOP primary in the Beaufort State Senate special election, what was expected to be a free-for-all primary fielding seems to be narrowing its focus upon two of the four GOP candidates: County Council Chairman Weston Newton and Beaufort Representative Catherine Ceips.Both Ceips and Newton are waging aggressive campaigns for the GOP nomination, which is essentially the decisive race for the Senate seat recently vacated by Scott Richardson, and by any measure, these two are clearly leading the pack. However, it remains to be seen if either candidate has a realistic shot at winning the nominiation without a run-off, given the presence of the other two candidates.
Polling reports that have been shared with me, observed ground activity (or lack thereof), and fundraising reports all seem to add up to discouraging news for the other two GOP candidates - Hilton Head State Representative Richard Chalk and former County Councilman Tom Taylor - are failing to make much headway in their bids. In fact, Chalk seems to have little presence anywhere north of the Broad River, which roughly divides the Senate district in two. A number of observers were surprised to see Chalk's candidacy lagging, given his solid base in his House district.
For Newton, winning means carrying his base in Hilton Head, while cracking Ceips' support in her north county House district. For Ceips, winning likely requires the reverse. Ceips may also benefit if Republican women turn out, who usually strongly favor a female candidate. But ultimately, an off-year special election, the outcome will likely be a question of who turns out, and where from.
While Chalk's campaign may be lagging, his candidacy probably poses the biggest question in the race - he could split the south county vote, where his House seat is located, with Newton, helping Ceips pull ahead in the primary. But since it is unlikely that anyone can win this in the primary, a strong third place showing by Chalk doesn't mean the end for Newton. It just means that the race will likely swing widely between the primary and runoff, and Chalk's support, if sizable, could be critical to deciding the winner.
Even if Ceips and Newton are leading in this race, it's far from over. The GOP primary is May 1, and the run-off two weeks later. Expect these two to face a wild ride ... stay tuned ...
Besides, Ceips is just a RINO. Look how all the Democrats help raise her money.
The activists turn out. That could be a deciding factor.