British election predictor - pretty neat stuff!
Great Britain, where party influence upon voters is stronger than here in the US, has been able to fine tune the process of predicting the outcome of parliamentary elections.
Right now, polls are pointing to a major slump in support for the Labour Party, after ten years of rule, and a potential switch of control to the Conservative Party.
An interesting effect is how the overall polling lead will have much to do with how much a district will sway from one way to the other. For example, nine point shift in voter support nationwide would result in about the same percentage of voters switching their electoral allegiances in each constituency, or district. So a seat that might have gone for Labor by a four point majority in the last election may be picked up by the 2nd place party in that district by about the same margin (usually Conservatives, but sometimes Liberal Democrats or the Welsh or Scottish local parties).
Projections are that, should elections be called in the near future, the sixty-something seat majority for the Labourites might be slashed drastically or lost to the Conservatives, who would lead with either a narrow majority or be the largest party in a minority government.
This neat tool gives you the means to plug in polling data or test findings from recently-published polling. Check it out.
Right now, polls are pointing to a major slump in support for the Labour Party, after ten years of rule, and a potential switch of control to the Conservative Party.
An interesting effect is how the overall polling lead will have much to do with how much a district will sway from one way to the other. For example, nine point shift in voter support nationwide would result in about the same percentage of voters switching their electoral allegiances in each constituency, or district. So a seat that might have gone for Labor by a four point majority in the last election may be picked up by the 2nd place party in that district by about the same margin (usually Conservatives, but sometimes Liberal Democrats or the Welsh or Scottish local parties).
Projections are that, should elections be called in the near future, the sixty-something seat majority for the Labourites might be slashed drastically or lost to the Conservatives, who would lead with either a narrow majority or be the largest party in a minority government.
This neat tool gives you the means to plug in polling data or test findings from recently-published polling. Check it out.
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