With ten House members having announced their plans to move on: Jeff Duncan, Nikki Haley, Ken Kennedy, Doug Jennings, Lanny Littlejohn, Ted Pitts, Rex Rice, Tim Scott, Don Smith, and Michael Thompson, the 2010 cycle is likely going to be another year of big turnover. We've heard several other names who are considering leaving as well, but have yet to announce their decisions.
Two of the departing members are among the leaders of the House: Agriculture Committee Chair Jeff Duncan and Doug Jennings, former Democratic House leader.
The last two cycles saw an increased number of primary upsets of incumbents - five in 2008. If the retirements are accompanied by the primaries turning into another incumbent shooting gallery (several heated primaries are already developing) and GOP voter turnout surges this fall, toppling Democrats in several swing districts (Rep's Gunn, Hutto, Knight, and Miller are sure to be top GOP targets who all won close races in '08, aided by boosted Democratic turnout) then 2010 could well turn into a repeat of 2008.