Why being first in February doesn't matter in the First District

We got a media release from the Tumpy Campbell congressional campaign which felt the need to diss State Rep. Tim Scott, a potential entrant, and proclaim their "lead" in the still-developing race for the First District Congressional seat. The ad trumpted:

Carroll Campbell is in first place. With three former State Republican Party Chairmen's recent endorsements and some of South Carolina’s most respected and active donors and leaders' involvement on his Finance Committee, Campbell's momentum is still building.

It's worth noting that in the last two open races for the First District, those who led in polling or in cash raised at this stage in the race did not go on to Washington:

  • In 1994, Bob Harrell led in fundraising and didn't make the run-off while Van Hipp led in the pre-primary polling, only to lose the GOP run-off to Mark Sanford, who finished a dozen points behind Hipp in the primary.

  • In 2000, Buck Limehouse held a tremendous lead in fundraising and in early polling, but finished a distant second in the GOP primary, and lost the run-off to Henry Brown.
Moral of the story is this: Being first in February doesn't necessarily mean you'll be the congressman from the First. It will be up to the Campbell campaign to prove the First District's front-runner curse is the exception and not the rule.

2 Response to "Why being first in February doesn't matter in the First District"

  1. west_rhino 2/2/10 10:35
    Earl, I have to consider the "non-partisan" mainstream media seem to have pushed the one they'd like to have face the annointed Democrat when there's been serious race on the GOP side for the nomination.

    That being said, consider the mud to be flung in a Van Hipp vs Robert Barber or a Buck Limehouse vs Andy Brack race instead of the races run that were GOP wins.

    For one running on daddy's record, I've got to give Paul Thurmond more props than young master Campbell, demonstrating an electability and building a record for the electorate of service. That record of service being dissed, as well as the subtle dissing 'cause Mr. Scott's guilty of "running while black" serves to undercut any artifice of a Campbell lead in a hand picked set of polling data.
  2. Anonymous 24/2/10 13:17
    S'pose those pesky polls that show the only female ahead are just being ignored. Oh well, time will tell. I looked at her bio and she puts those "I'm The Son Of" to shame. Katherine Jenerette is in the lead and from what I can tell, she is going to keep moving forward. She recently said in a 912 meeting that she has had tens of thousands of hits on her web site and believes people are carefully considering their choices this go round. She was encouraging folks to do their homework and look at leadership ability, not so much how much money is in the campaigns at this time. She also said that the contributions from big business and large corporations were a part of the story because regular people, like her, give small amounts and don't expect anything in return. I agree with what she said and looked at the contributions on line at the SC Ethics website. Very Interesting!!!! I think we all know that she is the 912, teaparty candidate and will have a huge groundswell of boots on the ground when it comes time to do battle on election day.

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