Democrats admit that they're going to lose a lot of House seats this fall, while a lot of polling suggests that the balance of power in the House could come down to just a few seats. The Democrats hope to hold onto the House by mounting a strong defense of their seats to cut losses, and then aiming to pick up 4-6 GOP held districts where Democrats have favorable numbers.
Their hopes mostly focus upon winning four GOP-held House seats in Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois and Louisiana. But news suggests that some of these pickups may be tougher than projected, with HipHop Republican reporting that the incumbent Republicans in two of those seats leading for re-election:
Tarrance Group polling showing recently-elected Hawaii-1 GOP House member Charles Djou holding an 8 point lead in his re-election bid (50-42%), 14 point lead in voters who feel he deserves re-election (45-31%), and a 58% approval rating.
Joseph Cao, who won a New Orleans-based House seat several weeks after Obama won the district handily, holds a modest lead in early polling over his Democratic challenger. With an overall 51%-26% margin, Cao leads by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters. While it's likely the overwhelming majority of undecided black voters will throw their support behind the Democrat, his strong lead with white voters is equally likely to grow, so winning even 20-25% of the black vote could be sufficient to keep the seat in the GOP column.
If Democratic efforts to turn these traditionally-Democratic seats come up short, the key races like the ongoing battle between Mick Mulvaney and John Spratt will become even more crucial to the battle for control of the House in November.