GOP on verge of legislative clean sweep in the South?
The 2010 elections and their aftermath saw much of the remaining state-level power of Southern Democrats evaporate. Prior to this, they held roughly half of the Southern legislative chambers, but the GOP took control of nearly half of those chambers : the Houses and Senates in Alabama and North Carolina on election night, and the Louisiana House shortly afterwards, leaving the Democrats in charge of just seven out of 26 legislative chambers from Austin to Richmond.
Since Election Day, the bleeding hasn't stopped for Democrats, as an ongoing wave of party-switches across the South is allowing the GOP to consolidate its gains and further erode what little power the Democrats still have in the South.
Republicans made considerable gains in every Southern state which held legislative elections this fall, gaining 163 seats. By contrast, in the seven Southern legislative chambers which the Democrats still hold, their collective majority is just 37 seats, with the GOP cutting those majorities nearly in half by gaining a total of 30 seats in those chambers in last month's elections:
Arkansas House and Senate: Republicans surged last month, going 28 to 44 seats in the 100 member House (+16 seats) and from 8 to 15 (+7 seats) in the 35 member Senate. To take over in Little Rock, they only need to gain seven House seats and three Senate seats.
Last month, the GOP had a strong romp through Arkansas, taking two U.S. House seats, sweeping out a Senate incumbent and carrying three of the four statewide races they contested (oddly enough, they left two uncontested). The Dems can't afford any more bad luck.
Kentucky House: The GOP cut the Democratic majority nearly in half, going from 35 to 42 seats in the 100 member chamber, a seven seat gain that leaves Dems with a nine-seat majority. The Democratic Governor had been working to switch control of the GOP-held Senate (where the GOP went from 20-17 to 22-15), but with the GOP Senate majority bolstered and House control weakened, he may switch to defense now.
Kentucky House: The GOP cut the Democratic majority nearly in half, going from 35 to 42 seats in the 100 member chamber, a seven seat gain that leaves Dems with a nine-seat majority. The Democratic Governor had been working to switch control of the GOP-held Senate (where the GOP went from 20-17 to 22-15), but with the GOP Senate majority bolstered and House control weakened, he may switch to defense now.
Lousiana Senate: The GOP took the House, first with a coalition with independents, and then finally took a lead over Democrats. The Democrats hold the Senate with 20 of 39 seats after two Senators defected to the GOP. One more party switch or good luck in the 2011 legislative elections and the GOP takes over this chamber.
Mississippi House and Senate: Democrats hold a twelve seat majority in the House, but some are reportedly splitting ranks to support a more conservative House Speaker, giving much of the real power to Republicans. In the Senate, Dems hold a two-seat lead, but two seats are also vacant, meaning the GOP could take control in the near future.
Given the GOP pickup of two U.S. House seats, the Democrats all but eliminated from state offices, and a series of defections by Democrats, momentum (for now anyway) is with Republicans. As Mississippi is one of three states that holds legislative races on odd-numbered years, the next eleven months will be interesting to watch, but it's hard to see the GOP failing to take at least the Senate then - if not sooner.
Virginia Senate: Republicans lost control of this chamber several years ago, which Democrats hold with a slim majority with 22 of 40 seats. Since then, the GOP regained most of their lost ground in the House (59 of 100 seats), swept the statewide races three years ago and toppled three House Democrats last month. They'll have legislative races next year, which should see the GOP make an all-out effort to get the three seats needed to retake the chamber.
The total GOP gains this year in southern states which held legislative races were as follows:
AL +29: H 21, S 8 AR +23: H 16, S 7
FL +7: H 5, S 2 GA +14: H 12, S 2
KY +9: H 7, S 2 NC +26: H 15, S 11
OK +14: H 8, S 6 SC +3: H 3
TN +14: H 14 TX +24: H 24
As future statewide and federal candidates often come from legislative chambers, this kind of news isn't good for the Democrats' long term prospects to remain politically relevant in a region they held total control over two generations ago. With current trends, it seems likely that as bad as the current state of affairs are, more bad news could be coming for southern Democrats over the next two years - bad news they can ill afford.
The total GOP gains this year in southern states which held legislative races were as follows:
AL +29: H 21, S 8 AR +23: H 16, S 7
FL +7: H 5, S 2 GA +14: H 12, S 2
KY +9: H 7, S 2 NC +26: H 15, S 11
OK +14: H 8, S 6 SC +3: H 3
TN +14: H 14 TX +24: H 24
As future statewide and federal candidates often come from legislative chambers, this kind of news isn't good for the Democrats' long term prospects to remain politically relevant in a region they held total control over two generations ago. With current trends, it seems likely that as bad as the current state of affairs are, more bad news could be coming for southern Democrats over the next two years - bad news they can ill afford.







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