Tinubu: Hope ain't enough

Yesterday, Gloria "The Green Quitter" Tinubu, opened a campaign office in Florence, calling Florence County "a very important base that we have to absolutely secure at a very significant level" (as opposed to at a superficial level, we suppose).

Since Tinubu has spent much of the last twenty years running up and down the East Coast, crashing colleges, suing airlines, warning of racism in the Olympics and running perennial candidacies, she might not know how tough it can be for a Democrat running for Congress to carry Florence County.

Florence County, which spent most of the last twenty years in the Sixth District, wasn't one of Jim Clyburn's favorite counties. In fact, it was the only county in the district that he wasn't assured of winning, even though he regularly won the district by a two-to-one margin.

Running against a string of weak and under-funded GOP challengers, Clyburn's incumbency and huge fundraising advantages couldn't guarantee wins in Florence County. In three of the last six Congressional races, the county went for broke GOP unknowns over Clyburn (2002, 2006 and 2010). That was even after the 2001 redistricting moved a chunk of Florence-area precincts into the Fifth District, which should have helped Clyburn.

Last year, most of Florence County was moved into the new Seventh while a strip of Democratic areas around Lake City remained in the Sixth.

Even the years Clyburn won the county, it wasn't by much. In 2004, he carried it by about 2000 votes out of roughly forty thousand and by 2500 votes out of fifty thousand in 2008 - against one candidate who lived with his mother and another one with a horribly shady history of judgments and tax liens.

But Tom Rice isn't anywhere near as disadvantaged as GOP candidates who made Florence tough going for Clyburn were and his campaign isn't broke - and Tom Rice doesn't have the baggage that Tinubu brought with her when she abandoned her Georgia State House seat last year to seek this Congressional seat.

If even the best circumstances meant tough going for Democratic congressional candidates in Florence County, Tinubu's expectations are delusional at best. To offset the strong lead Rice will carry from the coast, she'll need a lot more than a tie vote in Florence.

1 Response to "Tinubu: Hope ain't enough"

  1. Anonymous 10/9/12 11:09
    Earl--Tinubu has only one play, to roll up enough votes in the smaller rural counties to offset the blowout she will get in Horry. Since she is from Georgetown county she has to mitigate losses or win that county and pray for a miracle in Darlington/Florence. The cut comes to this,1) how does the BVAP turnout; 2)what, if anything, does Clyburn do to help her and 3)how bad does she lose Horry?

    Right now this is Rice's race to lose but the same was said in the Belmont and I'll Have Another...teg

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